Voter registration data; or, HERE IS YOUR HOPE, YOU FOOLS!

(x-posted.)

(Title updated to reflect the awesomeness of information contain within the post.)

Eric’s comment got me thinking about the effect new voter registration would have on the upcoming election. I looked high and low for some hard numbers but found none. So, being the “citizen journalist” I am, I scoured the internet and crunched them myself.

All the information comes from the states themselves. I’ve noted the period of time the numbers cover (as the data varies between states) as well as any circumstances preventing me from drawing firm conclusions. If you’re able to locate any of the data that eluded me, drop a note in the comments and I’ll add it to the list.

If you don’t feel like digging through the numbers, here’s the short answer: if I were a Republican, I’d be very, very worried.

Alabama: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Alaska: Alaska: 2,836 Republicans, 2,628 Democrats, 6,825 Independents (no aff. & all other)
From March 4 to September 4
Src: March 4, September 4

Arizona: 32,141 Republicans, 68,480 Democrats, 4,359 Other
From January 1 to September 2
Src: January 1, September 2

Arkansas: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

California: 46,497 Republicans, 417,793 Democrats, 117,313 Independents
From January to May 19
Src: January 1, May 19

Colorado: 13,352 Republicans, 66,516 Democrats, 23,437 Independents
Src

Connecticut: [can only locate 2007 data]
Src

Delaware: 676 Republican, 4,428 Democrats, 2,200 Independents
From July 1 to September 1
Src: July 1, September 1

Florida: 77,196 Republican, 209,422 Democrat, 26,100 Independents
From January to June
Src

Georgia: [broken down by race not party affiliation]
Src

Hawaii: [can’t locate]
Src

Idaho: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Illinois: [can’t locate]
Src

Indiana: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Iowa: 7,515 Republicans, 69,301 Democrats, -62,922 Independents
From January to August
Src: January, August

Kentucky: [wants money]
Src

Louisiana: [page won’t load—likely underwater]
Src

Maine: [last updated November 2006]
Src

Maryland: 4,260 Republicans, 12,338 Democrats, 5,544 Independents
From January to July
Src

Massachussetts: [only January data]
Src: January

Michigan: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Minnesota: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Mississippi: [can’t locate]
Src

Missouri: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Montana: [paged won’t load—I blame moose]
Src

Nebraska: [can’t locate]
Src

Nevada: 1,230 Republicans, 51,457 Democrats, 7,550 Independents
From January to August
Src: January, August

New Hampshire: -1,285 Republicans, 1,188 Democrats, 269 Independents
From June 12 to August 18
Src: June 12, August 18

New Jersey: [can’t locate]
Src

New Mexico: [only has May data]
Src

New York: -1,526 Republicans, 102,559 Democrats, -164 Blanks
From November 1 to March 1
Src: November 1, March 1

North Carolina: 20,363 Republicans, 171,955 Democrats, 123,605 Unaffiliated
From January 5 to August 30
Src: January 5, August 30

North Dakota: [the only state without voter registration]
Src

Ohio: [not released]
Src

Oklahoma: [only has January data]
Src

Oregon: -13,349 Republicans, 122,518 Democrats
From January to July
Src

Pennsylvania: 289 Republicans, 98,137 Democrats, 15,907 Independents (no aff. & all other)
From April 17 to August 25
Src: April 17, August 25

Rhode Island: [can’t locate]
Src

South Carolina: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

South Dakota: [only contains bulk data for 2008]
Src

Tennessee: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Texas: [not broken down by party affiliation]

Src

Utah: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Vermont: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

Virginia: [can't locate]
Src

Washington: [not broken down by party affiliation]
Src

West Virginia: [only have April data]
Src

Wisconsin: [can’t locate]
Src

Wyoming: 1,390 Republicans, 3,409 Democrats, 5,892 Independents
From January to August 16
Src

Comments

[Carrie K]

Now let's see if any of them actually make it to the polls to vote.

[Rich Puchalsky]

Uh huh. Here's a short poem entitled "America August 2008":

Two roads have diverged, and at last we can see
That Langston's America never will be
Our song of ourselves is a jingle of lies
And hope is a thing that will peck out your eyes

[Adam Roberts]

That poem is a cheery piece, Rich.

[Rich Puchalsky]

The comic forms are inherently cheery. Anapestic tetrameter -- like most of Dr. Seuss.

This dreadful one-stanza piece may be, comically, the best sort of poetry I can make. I read it at an open mic last night, and the audience really seemed to understand it. (Though the thing is tightly focussed in place as well as time. The public library in Amherst, Massachusetts has special collections for both Frost and Dickinson.) The American poetry tradition is inescapable for people around here, even as the myth of America sickens and dies, so it's like a dog returning to his vomit again and again.

[Shane]

Looking at it, the difference in registrations is greater than the difference in vote count in the 2004 presidential election in two states, Iowa and Nevada. Senate vote differences would be interesting, too. Does 538 use these numbers, I wonder?

[Rosie]

Alaska: 2,836 Republicans, 2,628 Democrats, 6,825 Independents (no aff. & all other)
From March 4 to Sept 4

Src: http://www.elections.alaska.gov/statistics/regbyprty3-4-08.html , http://www.elections.alaska.gov/statistics/regbyprty9-4-08.html

[SEK]

Rich, I'm ignoring your depressing poetry. This is supposed to be a thing of hope, not more of the same. (Damn lines, stuck in my head.)

Rosie, much obliged. I've updated the list.

[Rich Puchalsky]

As a politico I can see the advantages of cultivating hope even based on the slim reed of un-analyzed voter registration data not even for the critical states and ignoring what's likely to happen even in the best available case of Obama winning, but as a poet my impulse is to reach for a rock. Have you seen the much-linked Scott McCloud "four tribes" drawing? That was very helpful to me, because it at last gave me a self-understandable reason for why I write. (Once, at a picnic, all the poets except me participated in a game of writing down why they wrote, and came up with various statements about beauty, self-expression, etc. The best I could do was mutter "to annoy people.")

[Matthew]

Rich writes "to annoy people."

Count this day, a job well done!